Kasparov Comments on Miniputin's Misstep in Georgia

This article points out how Putin cut off his nose to spite his face. Tsk tsk. Fears of isolation as investors flee Russia By CATRINA STEWART – 6 hours ago MOSCOW (AP) — At the outset of this year, Russia proudly proclaimed itself an island of stability at the annual economic gathering in Davos, setting itself apart from the tumult of the global financial crisis. Then came the war with Georgia, which some here regard as Russia's 9/11. Within hours of Russia's retaliation to Georgia's move to take back its breakaway republic of South Ossetia, Russia had attracted widespread condemnation and threats of isolation and expulsion from the international community. "For the first time since the Crimean War, Russia has no allies," said Garry Kasparov, chess grandmaster turned opposition politician. "We are encircled by countries that are either suspicious or alienated and very angry." On the economic front, investors are hightailing out of Russia, while Western politicians have hinted at sanctions, visa restrictions and even the denial of Russia's right to host the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. Increasingly cut off from the global world, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev risks undoing many of the successes of the past 10 years, ranging from the country's robust economic growth to a growing sense of national prestige and purpose. Stock markets plunged, and Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said more than $7 billion was pulled out of the country in just two days, exposing the fragility of Russia's nine-year economic boom. Stock markets plunged, and more than $7 billion was pulled out of the country in just three days, exposing the fragility of Russia's nine-year economic boom. The economy was already under strain. The five-day war followed months of bad news on Russia's corporate front, led by a high-profile shareholder tussle for control at TNK-BP, the Anglo-Russian joint venture. In early summer, Bill Browder's Hermitage Capital blew the lid on a catalog of intimidation and corporate theft at the hands of Interior Ministry officials, and in July Prime Minister Vladimir Putin publicly attacked steelmaker Mechel, sending its shares into a tailspin. Inflation was running at nearly 15 percent. But while the storm clouds gathered, investors clung on. The war was the tipping point, said James Fenkner, managing partner at Red Star Asset Management. French investment bank BNP Paribas has estimated that more than $25 billion has been withdrawn from the country since the outbreak of the conflict, and Russian stock markets have plunged more than 30 percent since May. It's a far cry from last December, when investors and analysts said 2008 was the year that Russia's stock markets would recover from the previous year's mediocre performance, even in light of the global turmoil. Now investors are pulling their money out in droves. "Very few investors have to be here now," said Fenkner. "Unless they are Russia-dedicated, they will move to friendlier environments. Sentiment is just very bad." To many, Russia's fundamentals look very attractive. "Russia is extremely cheap, and most of the growth dynamics are still in place," said Peter Halloran, whose hedge fund Pharos Fund has $150 million under management in Russia. "If I look forward 12 months, I want to own Russia." But as the uncertainty continues, Russia could be seen as a high-stakes geopolitical gamble. "If there is a perception of Russia as a risky place or as an undesirable place to invest, then the damage will be more long term," said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib. "It will restrict the development of the economy and hurt the government's plans to create a more diversified the economy." The war has played well at home. Russians have rallied to the government's decision to punish Georgia for what it calls aggression and recognize the independence of South Ossetia and another separatist-controlled region, Abkhazia. Alexander Konovalov, president of Moscow's Institute of Strategic Assessment, said many in Western countries see a "big, strong, unmanageable Russia" attacking "a small, democratic, innocent Georgia." "In Russia," he said, "it is big, aggressive, undemocratic and irresponsible Georgia who took small and innocent South Ossetia." As Western politicians warn of sanctions and consequences, many ordinary Russians feel increasingly isolated — and blame the Western media for painting a distorted picture of the conflict. Russians "are sad about the situation and I have had many e-mails from people asking why the media is reporting the situation only from one side," said Lioudmila Siegel, chairman of an organization for Russians in Sweden. A minority of Russians, though, have denounced the government's decision to use military force in the conflict. The Union of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, for instance, has railed against the use of conscripts in Georgia, despite promises by the Defense Ministry that it would not do so. Boris Nemtsov, an opposition politician, has said the invasion was a blunder, and that ordinary Russians will pay for it. "This is a strategic and long-term mistake, the effects of which will be felt by virtually all Russians," Nemtsov wrote. "This is the beginning of a new arms race." It could, he predicted, also mean visa restrictions, expulsion from the G8 group of countries, discrimination against Russian business abroad and a reversal of the decision to give Russia the 2014 Winter Olympics. But for the most part, liberal opposition to Russia's actions has been relatively subdued. "The liberals have been extremely quiet," said Konovalov. To stand up for "democratic values and cooperation with the West ... will be seen as a betrayal." David Cameron, head of Britain's Conservative opposition party, called for the British government to suspend visas for some Russian nationals and even, possibly, suspend Russia's membership of the G8 club of rich nations. Since the murder of Alexander Litvinenko on British soil nearly two years ago, relations between London and Moscow have deteriorated, and British tabloids were quick to pick up on anti-Russian sentiment. On Thursday, the Daily Mirror tabloid newspaper condemned British foreign secretary David Miliband for allowing "hundreds of Russian oligarchs who prospered under Vladimir Putin" to use "Britain as a bolthole." But while there is some popular bashing of Britain's very rich Russians — who the tabloids have long loathed because they benefit from Britain's relatively generous expat tax laws — the overwhelming political and business view of Russians in Britain is still positive. But analysts warn that, even if Russians themselves are welcomed abroad, it may become more difficult for Russian big business to expand there — especially in sensitive areas such as defense and energy. In a fit of pique two years ago, then-President Putin canceled foreign participation in the Shtokman gas project after European objections to a move by VTB, a major Russian bank, to acquire a minority stake in Europe's EADS aerospace and defense group. "This Russia phobia is nothing new," said Fenkner. "But it's going to turn up a couple of notches. It's not a trend reversal." ___ Associated Press writers Emily Flynn Vencat in London and Malin Rising in Stockholm contributed to this story. (This version CORRECTS SUBS 7th graf to correct time span.)

Kasparov Speaks Out - Wall Street Journal

For background, see November 30, 2007 post "Kasparov Speaks Out" and and November 27, 2007 post "Karpov Denied Visit to Jailed Kasparov". I don't generally agree with its politics, but this time, the newspaper got it absolutely dead on. Even if you are not a fan of Kasparov, what he's standing up for now in Russia, by insisting on free and open elections to all comers - and being blasted as a "traitor" for this stance - is really important, and some of the comments he makes in this article, quite matter-of-fact, are very chilling. From The Wall Street Journal: COMMENTARY Our Struggle Against Tyranny in Russia By GARRY KASPAROV December 1, 2007; Page A13 For years the governments of the U.S. and Europe have tried to accept Vladimir Putin's Russia as an equal. Western diplomats now acknowledge that there are differences between Russia and the West, but say these differences are minor, and -- in the words of one European Union official -- within an "acceptable range." For me and for a dozen of my associates this week, that "acceptable range" was 120 square feet. That's the size of the jail cell I occupied for five days as punishment for "disobeying the orders of a police officer" at an opposition rally in Moscow last Saturday. That's the charge a Moscow district court added after the fact, a charge not mentioned in the handwritten testimony of the arresting officers. This was the least conspicuous of the many curious aspects of my arrest and trial. After our rally of several thousand people, we attempted to meet up with another group led by well-known human rights leader Lev Ponomarev. From there we intended to deliver a petition of protest to the office of the Central Election Committee. The police had blocked the underground pedestrian passageways, so we had to cross the broad street instead and were soon blocked by more police. When they moved in close, I spoke with commanding officer Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Kozlov, whom I had met previously. He warned us to turn back, saying we would not be allowed to approach the CEC offices. I offered to send a small delegation of 20 people to present the petition. He again told us to turn back, which we did. Of course it is inaccurate to say that the police commander was the one in command. KGB officers in plain clothes were clearly in charge even at the police station, and the arrest itself was as choreographed as the trial to come. When the special security forces known as OMON pushed in past everyone else to arrest me, we could all hear "make sure you get Kasparov" on their walkie-talkies. From the moment of our detention, we were not allowed to see our lawyers, even when charged at the police station. Three hours into the trial, the judge said it would be adjourned to the following day. But the judge then left the bench and returned to say that we had misheard her, and that my trial would go forward. No doubt another example of what we call "telephone justice." As in the street and at the police station, the KGB and the OMON forces were in control. The defense was not allowed to call any witnesses or to present any materials, such as the videos and photos journalists had taken of the march and the arrests. After the show trial was over, I was taken to the police jail at Petrovka 38 in Moscow, and here the procedural violations continued. Not with regard to my treatment, which was respectful and as hospitable as a small box with metal furnishings and a hole in the floor for a toilet can be. I wasn't allowed a phone call and all visitors were refused access. Even my lawyer Olga Mikhailova and Duma member Vladimir Ryzhkov were forbidden to visit me, despite having the legal right to do so. My world chess champion predecessor, Anatoly Karpov, for years my great rival, generously attempted to pay me a visit but was also turned away. My other concern was food, since it was out of the question to consume anything provided by the staff. (Nor do I fly Aeroflot. "Paranoia" long ago became an obsolete concept among those in opposition to the Putin regime.) On Sunday, thanks to growing external pressure, they allowed me to receive food packages from home. In a fitting conclusion, even my release was handled illegally. Instead of letting me out at the jail into the crowd of media and supporters, many of whom had themselves been arrested and harassed while picketing, I was secretly taken to the police station where I was first charged. From there I was taken in a colonel's automobile all the way to my home. This may sound like good service, but it was obvious the authorities wanted to avoid the festive scene that would have occurred outside the jail. When I was arrested last April and fined $40, some poked fun at the trivial amount. And five days in a Moscow jail is not the worst fate that can be imagined. Some commentators even suspected I wanted to provoke my own arrest for publicity, a chess player's far-sighted strategy. First off, the penalty is not the point; the principle is. Are we to have the rule of law in Russia or not? Second, I have no intention of becoming a martyr, or in leading an opposition movement from prison. I had no illusions and now I can confirm it is not a pleasant place to be. And this is not chess, with its cold-blooded calculations. This is about honor and morality. I cannot ask people to protest in the streets if I am not there with them. At the rally on Saturday, I said our slogan must be "We must overcome our fear," and I am obliged to stand by these words. It is also essential to point out that these arrests are only the tip of the iceberg. Such things are taking place all over Russia on a daily basis. Opposition activists -- or just those who happen to be in the way of the administration -- are harassed and arrested on false charges of drug possession, extremism, or the latest trend, for owning illegal software. There is little doubt tomorrow's parliamentary elections will be as fixed as my trial. The presidential elections on March 2 will be a different sort of performance, more improvised, since even now Mr. Putin and his gang are not sure how to resolve their dilemma. The loss of power could mean the loss of fortune and freedom. Outright dictatorship would endanger their lucrative ties with the West. The campaign rhetoric of Mr. Putin and his supporters is genuinely frightening. Here we have an allegedly popular president who dominates the media, the parliament and the judiciary. He and his closest allies are in total control of the nation's wealth. And yet his recent speeches are hysterical rants about "enemies within" and "foreign antagonists" trying to weaken Russia -- language characteristic of totalitarian states. So far this campaign has been largely ineffective, at least in my case. During my five days in jail I had the chance to speak to many of the ordinary consumers of Kremlin propaganda. They were generally sympathetic, and showed no signs of believing the many lies the Kremlin and the youth groups it sponsors have spread about the opposition. For them I was still the Soviet chess champion and the idea that I was an "American agent" sounded as ludicrous as it is. So why is Mr. Putin so scared if things are going so well? He is a rational and pragmatic person, not prone to melodrama. He knows the numbers, so why the heavy and heavy-handed campaigning if he knows he and United Russia are going to win? The answer is that he is very aware of how brittle his power structure has become. Instead of sounding like a Tsar, high above the crowd, he's beginning to sound like just another nervous autocrat. As George Bernard Shaw wrote, "The most anxious man in a prison is the governor." So demagoguery it is and demagoguery it will be. A violent pro-Putin youth group, Nashi, has already released a poster celebrating Mr. Putin's "crushing victory" on December 2. It also warns against the "enemies of the people of Russia," myself included, attempting to disqualify the results. These terms jibe nicely with Mr. Putin's own rhetoric of threats and fear. The ground is being prepared for greater oppression. The Other Russia will continue our activities because, simply, some things are worth fighting for and will not come without being fought for. All of the "minor differences" between Mr. Putin's Russia and the nations of the free world add up to one very large difference: that between democracy and tyranny. Mr. Kasparov, a leader of the Other Russia coalition, is the former world chess champion and a contributing editor of The Wall Street Journal.

Saturday Night Restless

I didn't have a chance to do my usual Friday Night Miscellany last night, so I thought I'd do a round-up of some interesting things tonight. I'm not in a good mood, darlings. In fact, I've been feeling decidedly prickly today and ready to rip someone's head off - is Sam Sloan near by??? Well, poor Mr. Sloan, perhaps I shouldn't pick on him, he's got enough on his plate just being - him. Geez. How about the Chinese, instead? What a government of asses! Even worse that the Dubya administration (yes, hard to believe, I know). I've written about this before, the practice of female infanticide because of the Chinese "cultural" preference for sons. Some "culture." There's a new "opinion" article out by the Christian Science Monitor: China's surplus of sons: A geopolitical time bomb. Birth ratios of 130 to 140 boys to 100 girls, because of abortions and the revered ancient practice of exposing new-born female infants to the elements and wild animals to die "by natural causes." Expect the restless masses of horny Chinese men to inflict untold horrors on the world in the 21st century. First stop - over the border to Russia - they've always hankered for those blonde-haired, blue-eyed, buxom beauties (we all know they do). Putin, who will be around 90 by then, will have his hands full (darlings, I'm not even going to go there). Couldn't happen to a nicer fella, by the way. Hope I'm dead by then so I won't have to see it. Another interesting "opinion" piece: About that Muslim Letter to the Pope. I don't recall hearing about this - it makes interesting reading. The moral of the story is: Muslims, don't be looking to pick out the piece of straw in the Christians' collective eyes without first plucking out the rafter from your own collective eyes. And if you don't get it, write to me, I'll send you the Bible verse. From the OH PULLLEEEESSEEEEE category, J.K. Rowling, who used to be someone I respected, says the Albus Dumbledore character in her Harry Potter series of books was gay - madly in love, no less, with a man he was ultimately responsible for sending to a lifetime's imprisonment. It's all about "tolerance." Yeah, right. Bankers wary of investment fund rescue effort. Why am I not surprised (yawn....) Signs of slowdown eyed in earnings deluge. Well, DUH! Here's an idea, darlings. Appoint JANXENA (that's me in my piss-ant mood) as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Hey, I've a Bachelor's in Economics and Political Science and I've a Juris Doctor degree, too. What more qualifications do I need, I ask you? Oh - hey - here's something we always wanted to know. Mona Lisa once had eyebrows. Before she went to a cut-rate spa and they used too much wax, that is... Iran minister says U.S. in no position to attack - another asshole. Are he and Dubya twins separated at birth? IRS to poker winners: Pay up! Okay, now we know it's the end of the world as we know it, everyone, locate your cyanide pill and swallow on three, two, one... 'night, darlings. Hope you don't get eaten alive by bed bugs. Yechy!